"Nobody wants to do what's in the country's interest"

Yesterday afternoon I found myself crossing the increasingly bedraggled expanse of Tahrir Square (where a permanent encampment of protesters has lived since last month's confrontation with Morsi and where a mild Mad Max vibe now prevails) to go hear about how the Egyptian ecomony is doomed.

At a media roundtable on the Egyptian economy at the American Univerity in Cairo's downtown campus, professors from the university predicted that the pound will fall to 7LE to the dollar; that growth will be no more than 2% of GDP; that foreign and domestic investment will remain low (private investment is currently 16% of GDP, whereas to promote growth it should be at 20-25%) and that inflation and social tension will rise. 

The economic policies of the current government were treated with ridicule -- starting with a recent announcement that they will create 800,000 jobs this year (most jobs "created" since the revolution by the government have meant giving permanent posts to functionaries on temporary contracts -- and we all know how the Egyptian bureaucracy needs to be strenghtened) and ending with their promise that new Sharia-compliant Islamic bonds will raise $200 million. Economics professor and disgruntled social observer Galal Amin, in particular, eschewed economic jargon and tore into the situation with refreshing candor and avuncular charm. "I don't see why we even need to have conferences to discuss fixing the economy, guys" he said, "when they can raise $200 million by creating a new kind of bond." 

According to Amin -- although the economy wasn' t great before the revolution -- the basis of Egypt's economic crisis is political, caused by "a lack of security and a lack of trust," which the prevailing political discourse does not help. Investors, Christians, tourists -- none of them are confident in Egypt anymore. And the Islamist government obfuscates. "They don't just not tell the truth," about the economy, he said. "They say the opposite of the truth." 

Read More

How Egypt Can Learn from Iran’s Subsidy Mistakes

Breakfast Wrap: How Egypt Can Learn from Iran’s Subsidy Mistakes

Good post asking the right questions about Egypt  subsidy-busting plan. The biggest question I have is, considering that the approach is introducing quotas per family (all income levels having the same quota), is how quickly can this system be implemented? Sounds like a plan for in a  year or two at best, not something you can implement now to deal with an urgent budget deficit.

Great new anti-army video calling for Egypt general strike

This video, put out by Aalam Wassef, is one of the most daring and well-made I've seen yet by the anti-SCAF movement. The basic narrative is that the SCAF represents a military that has run Egypt into the ground for some sixty years, while enjoying the fruits of its economic empire, luxury hospitals, clubs etc. It calls for a boycott of military-produced products and a general strike on February 11.

Links for 08.08.09 to 08.09.09

Middle East Report Online: Rachel Corrie in Palestine…and in San Francisco | Joel Beinin on the hysterical reaction to the screening of French-Israeli filmmaker Simone Bitton's film on Rachel Corrie at the San Francisco Film Festival. Israeli agents to screen judges before appointment - Middle East, World - The Independent | Israel - just another Middle Eastern autocracy: "Israel's internal security service has been given a de facto veto over the appointment of judges in an unprecedented decision that has the country's embattled liberals up in arms. The move by the Judges Selection Committee on Friday is likely to make it harder for members of Israel's Arab minority and others with views that are not mainstream to become judges, according to the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (Acri)." Obama's letter to Assad .... | FLC: "According to the Lebanese daily Al Akhbar, President Obama heeded a "french advice" and transferred the Lebanon-Syria file (s) to the White House, away from the tractions and the oversight of such officials as Jeffrey Feltman... Moreover, and always according to Al Akhbar, a senior Arab diplomat in Beirut said that President Obama sent a "three pages letter" to President Assad asking him to "turn a new page in the bilateral relations between the US and Syria" ... and outlining ways to move forward. " Typhoid outbreak in Egypt | In Qaloubiya governorate, due to water sanitation issues. There are increasing water sanitation and distribution problems in Egypt, a sign that the government is not sufficiently investing in infrastructure. Central Bank: Egypt's remittances drop 26 percent (AP via Yahoo! Finance) | The crisis hits. Al-Ahram Weekly | Living | Obituary: Fayza Hassan, 1938-2009: Life interrupted | Very sad to hear about the death of this wonderful writer. Egypt's National Security Threatened By Sorcery: Psychiatrist | Mountain = molehill. EGYPT: Anwar Sadat's daughter sues information minister over Hollywood movie | Babylon & Beyond | Los Angeles Times | Because of the film "I love you, man." Which isn't very good anyway (and the dog does not resemble Sadat). Reptile wreaks havoc on Cairo-bound flight | Funny: "A “small crocodile” running up and down the aisle of a Cairo-bound flight recently sent passengers into a frenzy. No one claimed ownership of the creature, which turned out to be a lizard." Israeli settlement freeze 'not enough for Saudis' (AFP) | I almost hate to praise Saudi Arabia, but they have this right.
Read More

Links for November 28th

Automatically posted links for November 27-28th:
Read More