Gamal Mubarak, the 2005 elections, and the Mufti on QIZs
Gamal Mubarak is quoted in the December 25 Al Hayat as saying that the Fall parliamentary elections would be “important and decisive.” He said they would be “different” and added that “it is unimaginable to conduct the new elections in an air of suspicion as happened during the past elections.”
The Gamal quotes in Al Hayat came from a meeting with 400 agricultural union leaders in the Delta governorate of Daqahliya. The December 25 Al Misry Al Yom has a related article quoting assorted analysts describing the young Mubarak’s recent tour of the Egyptian countryside as “propaganda and self promotion, especially given the uncertainty of the succession issue.”
One parliament member, Adel Eid, (I’m assuming he’s opposition but it doesn’t say in the article) said, “The decrease in Gamal Mubarak’s support among the grassroots of the Egyptian people pushed him to convene these meetings with different segments of Egyptian society, like students, youth, workers, and peasants. This is after he has presented himself to foreign circles, especially America, to guarantee popular support and the support of the west when he steps forward to be President of the Republic.”
Abu Alaa Al Maadi, the outspoken head of the new Al Wasat Party has some good quotes in the article to the same effect, basically that Gamal Mubarak has realized that his coterie of intellectuals and businessmen does not necessarily translate into popular support. As a result he has begun directing his attentions to the peasants and the workers.
It is stated as a given by some of those interviewed in the article that Gamal’s support is waning. I’m wondering is Gamal really losing support among the Egyptian masses? Did he ever really have that support in the first place? And does he even need that support? (Where’s Stacher when you need him?)
Meanwhile, the leftist Tegammu Party, whose leader Rafaat Al Said came under fire recently after he met with the American Ambassador David Welch, announced that it is prepared to compete in the coming parliamentary elections. However the Tegammu party warned that it is still considering how to deal with the presidential referendum. It will either vote against Hosni Mubarak, or will boycott the presidential referendum all together in protest against the single candidate referendum.
Saad Eddin Ibrahim has announced that his Ibn Khaldun Center will be monitoring the 2005 parliamentary and presidential elections. Recall that many say that his monitoring and subsequent criticism of the 1995 and 2000 elections was the primary cause for his differences with the regime that ultimately led to a series of trials and retrials and his spending the better part of three years in jail.
A spokesperson for the Egyptian cabinet said on December 23 that the new political laws go to Parliament next month. The new laws will include the formation of a high committee for elections in order to ensure that they are fair and transparent, and the abolishing of prison sentences for journalists. (Are we repeating reforms here? Weren’t prison sentences for journalists abolished last February?)
The Mufti on QIZs: Al Masry Al Yom reported on December 24 that the Mufti of Egypt, Ali Gomaa, has declared that the QIZ agreement with Israel is simply a matter of free trade similar to any international agreement. And added that there is no need to fear trade with Israel. He stressed that the QIZs are good for the public interests of Egypt. And pointed out that Muslims traded with the Jews during the time of the Prophet.
Categories: Egypt.
Adel Eid is an independent parliment member, and “always” been in the opposition… He’s a lawyer and he was a member of the famous Sadat “first” parliment of the late 70’s …. and was among those who were arrested before Sadat’s assasination 1981 in the “septemper arrests”… He represents “dayret bab sharq” in Alexandria… I think he headed a coalition of independent parliment members 2 or 3 years ago and they asked to have a place to meet at the parliment but I don’t know where that ended… He’s usually classified as an “independent islamist” and has a book titled: ” المضابط تتكلم” about his participation in the 1976-1979 parliment ..
Thanks for that Mohammed.
Greeting from grey Belgium… where internet connections are more problematic than Egypt. Perhaps they need an Ahmed Nazif here.
Charles,
I brought with me here the Masri Al Youm from Friday, whose top headline is “The Cabinet: The new political laws are in front of the People’s Assembly.” The article discusses a law on electoral reform that has been discussed for about two years now, I remember the minister of parliamentary affairs (and NDP whip) Kamal Al Shazli even mentioning at some point that some kind of proportional representation system might be brought in. I think that we should keep in mind that one of the main impetus behind the current NDP reform was the embarrassing result of the 2000 elections, when official NDP candidates did poorly and many “independent” candidates that were elected had to be invited to join the NDP afterwards. Gamal Mubarak spoke repeatedly about this being the spark of the “new thinking” about the party.
I doubt we’re going to see anything so drastic as a PR system, but there will be mechanism put in place both within the NDP and the electoral laws to ensure that candidate selection takes place in a better way and that more official NDP candidates win. (Of course Gamal also promised more influence for regional NDP councils in electing candidates and a greater voice for young members of the party.)
In any case, Gamal and his buddies are following up with the promises they made at last September’s NDP conference. The details for the reforms were relatively hazy then, and they remain so now, but perhaps we should give them the benefit of the doubt and take at face value their claims that they want to involve the opposition — the legal opposition, at least — in the drafting of these new laws.
Secondly there is also the issue that poor oversight of the elections also led to many judicial decisions cancelling specific elections. This parliament is the third or fourth that the judiciary has basically said was invalid/unconstitutional. It would be nice if they could at least make sure these avoidable problems (such as having clearer regulations on whether candidates with dual nationalities are eligible — as in the Rami Lakah case) don’t happen again.
But these are technical issues for the most part — I doubt these laws (there are four bills in total) will allow any real breakthrough such as full, unimpeded political participation. And in any case, during the last elections (which your humble correspondent covered in six different districts, both rural and urban) the main problem was not cheating at the ballot box but the fact that police surrounded voting stations and did not allow some people to get in to vote at all. And that’s not tackled in the law.
P.S. Re: the press laws, I think this is different that the one Mubarak announced in January, it includes reforms regarding the libel laws and other stuff that the press syndicate pressed for. This has also been discussed for a while now, at least since the NDP conference.
i love u gamal