Mubarak introduces multiple candidate elections at The Arabist

Mubarak introduces multiple candidate elections

I am eating my words. This morning, in a speech broadcast on TV, President Hosni Mubarak asked the Shura Council, the upper house of parliament, to change article 76 of the constitution to allow for multiple candidate elections. If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ll know that I never thought it would happen, especially as Mubarak has asked that this be done before the September presidential elections. Here’s the AP (updated AP, updated AFP) and BBC stories:

CAIRO, Egypt - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday ordered a review and amendment of the country’s presidential election law, paving the way for multi-candidate polls in September.

“This morning I have asked the parliament and the Shura Council to amend Article 76 of the constitution, which deals with the election of the president to discuss it and suggest the appropriate amendment to be in line with this stage of our nation’s history,” Mubarak said in a speech broadcast live on Egyptian television.

He said the amendment would be put to a general public referendum before the presidential polls, scheduled for September.

The surprise announcement follows increasing opposition calls for political reforms, including multi-candidate presidential elections.

Currently, Egypt holds presidential referendums in which people vote “yes” or “no” for a single candidate who has been approved by parliament. The legislature has been dominated by Mubarak’s ruling party since political parties were restored in the 1970s.

I will be working on the details of this today, but here is my instant analysis:

This is an extremely important step provided the changes do not excessively limit who can be a candidate.

There was absolutely no forewarning except an item in Al Ahram last night that Mubarak would be giving a major speech in the morning.

If US pressure is involved, this could be linked to a visit earlier this week by the Assistant Trade Representative for Europe and the Mediterranean. Although it was the highest level trade meeting since 2002, the Egyptians were very disappointed again that FTA negotiations seem still far off.

There was also President Bush’s reiteration on Monday of his demand that Egypt “lead the way for reform.” And the Washington Post’s campaign against Mubarak.

This may explain why the Kefaya movement has been allow to grow in the past few weeks, with at least two newspapers more or less endorsing it.

This could mean Ayman Nour will soon be released. Also, the six candidates who presented themselves in the past few months could now be joined by others, more serious political operatives.

In the end, though, this does not alter my prediction that Mubarak will be re-elected by a very comfortable margin. In fact, this might strengthen him. They guy has a history of one step forward, two steps back.

Update:

Here is the story from the official MENA agency:

09:22:00 (GMT) 26-02-05
MENA 37
Egypt-Mubarak-Constitution Mubarak wants article 76 of constitution amended

SHIBIN EL-KOM, Egypt, Feb 26 (MENA) - President Hosni Mubarak said he
submitted a request this morning to the People’s Assembly and Shura
Council to have article 76 of the Egyptian constitution, pertaining to the
way a president of the republic is selected, amended.

Mubarak, during a speech he delivered Saturday at a popular rally at the University of Menoufiya Conference Centre, said the parliament will
start debating it and offer the proper amendment in line with the requirements of this stage of our nation’s history .

He said this historic amendment in Egypt’s constitutional march
offers for the first time a chance for whoever is able and wishes to serve
the nation to shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the country’s
gains.

The president said whoever wants to run for presidency must come within
a parliamentary and popular framework for direct presidential elections.

Just a few more thoughts: Menoufiya is where Mubarak was born and probably was of the places where he is most genuinely popular. The crowds being shown on TV looked unusually jubilant; that might be why. I also wonder what is meant by “whoever wants to run for presidency must come within a parliamentary and popular framework.”

Update II:

Here is the Reuters story. It brings this news quote on Mubarak’s justification for the amendment:

“to give the opportunity to political parties to enter the presidential elections and provide guarantees that allow more than one candidate to be put forward to the presidency for people to choose among them freely.”

Combined with the above-mentioned “parliamentary framework” this could mean candidates will either have to be MPs or party members (or leaders.)

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Published by arabist February 26th, 2005
Categories: Egypt.

12 Responses to “Mubarak introduces multiple candidate elections”

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1 Josh Stacher Feb 26th, 2005 at 12:09 pm

Interesting indeed. When I saw al-Jazeera broadcasting it in a Damascene coffeeshop, I nearly dropped the mug.
Then I remembered last spring - canceling military decrees, no more journalists going to jail for their opinions (instead they go for libel), and all the rumors of emergency law. My skepticism is on high alert at the moment.

I am sitting back a week (or two) and then we will see how this is all translated through the system. As far as I see it, none of the the contenders for the presidency have any constituency to beat Mubarak. He holds the power, money, army, and bureacracy…….
Also, his statement did indicate that restrictions would be placed on other candidates. This is the usual early spring-surprise that happens each year before traveling to Washington or Crawford.

This is another case of fake reform - giving in on things that don’t really change the nature of the system (how politics is organized) or the “regime’s” center. If I am not mistaken, Tunisia also allows for multi-candidancy presidential constests (and those only end one way). Now, the pressure should be on term-limits which was unsurprisingly absent in this morning’s statement.

Loved to be proved wrong on this….. I got to go get some things done - my wife will destroy me if she finds I am away “working” but really blogging all day.

Keep the updates coming Issandr
2 Jonathan Edelstein Feb 26th, 2005 at 4:05 pm

This is potentially great news. As you say, though, a great deal will depend on whether candidates get screened and how much the NDP parliamentary delegation will control the screening process. The safeguards placed on the campaigning and voting process will also be important. This could be a real election, or it could end up being a put-up job pitting Mubarak against a few nonentities.

I agree that Mubarak will probably win even if the election is free and fair. African democratization processes show that the incumbent president, even if unpopular, nearly always wins the first multi-party election due to logistical and administrative advantages (and, often, the ability to divide and conquer the opposition). This is especially true if, as here, opposition candidates will have relatively little time to build organizations and make themselves known.

Hopefully Ayman Nour will be released and this will be a step toward democracy.
3 Hellme Feb 26th, 2005 at 5:19 pm

I feel the same sceptisism Josh.

I think none of the candidates currently on offer will be allowed to put themselves up for election, and it will be because of some bureacratic loophole. I can’t blame Mubarak for his opposition’s lack of popular support (most of their agendas are pure dribble), but it’ll be interesting how this pans out on the ground.
4 Jonathan Edelstein Feb 26th, 2005 at 5:43 pm

BTW, the first thing I did after I saw the BBC story was run right here.
5 Mohammed Feb 26th, 2005 at 7:04 pm

it seems it’ll be limited to one candidate for each party and anyone else who would “prove the seriousness of his/her candidacy by having support of the representatives of the people in contitutional institutions and local public councils”
6 Jamal Feb 26th, 2005 at 7:27 pm

I was watching Jazeera intermittently about an hour ago(and was a bit distracted as well, so pardon me if I make any mistakes here), but the Wafd had an official spokesman on the air (I believe one of their parliamentarians). He spoke in a praiseworthy tone not unlike Issandr’s and deliberately avoided the question of whether any “pressure” had led to the decision, instead talking up the way Mubarak was listening to the voice of the people and such. But what I found odd was his statement of what the Wafd plans to do with this new option: he said if Mubarak runs then they won’t even put up a candidate. Only if Mubarak doesn’t run will they put up a candidate? I’ve loved Egypt for a long time but always have been rather mystified by it’s murky politics, so can someone please tell me “eh al-7ikaya” here?
7 Leila Feb 26th, 2005 at 9:06 pm

Thanks for posting this item and your on-the-ground analysis. I’m linking at Dove’s Eye View.
8 Yuri Guri Feb 26th, 2005 at 9:30 pm

The way I read it, the elliptical reference to candidates coming from a “parliamentary and popular framework” and from “political parties” is designed to exclude Islamist contenders from the Muslim Brotherhood.

For good or ill, Islamism is a significant stream in Egyptian society, so it seems like a pretty big omission. But it’s not like Mubarak would want to have an election without a predetermined outcome, so it’s understandable. He is doing Egyptians a favor and he expects gratitude, not removal from power.
9 Billy Mar 1st, 2005 at 3:06 pm

Who says that real democracy will not work in Egypt. True we have to improve our education system aongst many other issues. But on the other hand considering India had a high rate of illiteracy and succeeded in having a democratic government. It helped improve the standards of living for the Indian people. We hope the same happens in Egypt. Most important to have a true democratic elections, the elections need to be monitored by foreign boddies and the candidates presented should be recommended by International standards. If there should be limitations, it should be towards military and religious leaders. That era shoul be put behind us. Egypt needs a good and fresh leader that will improve the current standings. Terms of elections has to be limited as it is in the United States. Also the issue of corruption has to be addressed. And those who have abused the system must be brought to justice. I am willing to give my services and visions for a better tomorow.