There is, at the very least, a difference in how much of the West Bank each intends to keep - Sharon has pretty much given up on everything east of the wall, while Bibi still sems to think that it’s possible to bantustanize the place. Sharon’s also much more of a realist than Bibi, and recognizes that he’ll have to deal even if he doesn’t want to. The last Netanyahu premiership was a disastrous three years of wasted time that very possibly scuttled Oslo, and another round with him in office would be similarly bad for both Israelis and Palestinians.

There is growing frustration in Israel about the lack of a social programme. E.g. while Israel is in many ways a 1st world economy, its spending on social welfare is on par with 3rd world countries, and poverty is increasing. Israel used to be the Levantine “Scandinavian” social democratic utopia (well, at lest social democrats in Scandinavia believed it to be before the Palestinians were discovered), however this is now eroding and a lot of people are concerned about this.

I haven’t been following the Bibi vs. Arik debate lately, but aside from Gaza what are the main differences? Aren’t both intent on keeping the West Bank, Jerusalem, and postponing a final agreement indefinitely?

The best predictor of what a politician will do tomorrow is what he did yesterday, not what he said today.

Friedman:

“Why, you ask? Because the Likud under Bibi, and without Ariel Sharon, will be free to be itself - to represent the lunatic right in Israel, become a fringe party and drive over a cliff.”

This is not so much Friedman’s strange sense of humor as his recognition that very strange things happen in politics. Extremists takeover political parties even though the voters (who are often forced to choose between two extremists) are usually somewhere in the middle.

Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, said Thursday that he had been warning the Bush administration in recent days that Iraq was hurtling toward disintegration, a development that he said could drag the region into war.

“There is no dynamic now pulling the nation together,” he said in a meeting with reporters at the Saudi Embassy here. “All the dynamics are pulling the country apart.” He said he was so concerned that he was carrying this message “to everyone who will listen” in the Bush administration.

I don’t know if Sharon is tag-teaming with Netanyahu, feigning a leadership battle, or it it is for real.

btw: Did you see Landis’ Syria Comment today? He doesn’t mince words:

Iraq is exporting its sectarian war. In the crudest terms, America has lost its battle to create a constitutional Iraq, built on sectarian and ethnic deal-making and political agreement. What is going on now is that the US is empowering and arming ethnic militias - Kurds and Shiites - to overpower the Sunni population. That is what the battle at Tel Afar was all about. America is going to force Asad to hold down Sunnis in Syria, while America and its Iraqi allies rape Iraq’s Sunnis across the border. This is going to upset Sunnis in Syria - and not just the extremist Sunnis.

Operation Peace in Galilee all over again.