Israel’s circus politics
I used to follow Israeli politics much more closely a few years ago, but reading Haaretz recently reminded me that there is nothing more exhilarating than following the ups and downs of politics over there. This amusing article (shame about the racist ads, though) is just a small reminder of the high-stakes game being played in Tel Aviv:
There were plenty of comic moments during Shaul Mofaz’s press conference in Tel Aviv on Sunday: His entry through a window; his robotic adherence to prepared messages regardless of what he was asked; his exit through that same window.
But the highlight was when he was presented with the letter that he sent over the weekend to some 130,000 Likud members, in which he promised never to leave his “home.” That letter, he was told, had been written only five days earlier!
“Ten days,” he responded. “There were corrections and proofreading.” During those 10 days, Mofaz suddenly discovered that the “Feiglins” had conquered the Likud; that Benjamin Netanyahu and Uzi Landau were pulling it rightward; that the “rebels,” who opposed the disengagement, controlled the party. Somehow none of this was known to him three weeks ago, when Ariel Sharon left the Likud and urged him to join him. Only last Saturday night did it suddenly strike him.
His political conduct in recent weeks has been hapless. Someone advised him to attack Sharon at every opportunity. In doing so, he drove away Sharon’s supporters in the Likud. And the moment he began prattling to the media, he turned from a serious and professional defense minister into another politician.
But the problem was not just Mofaz; it was also Sharon and his enormous appetite. Three hours before Mofaz telephoned Sharon on Saturday night, one of Sharon’s associates said that Kadima would not accept any more new members. “Enough already!” he declared. But that was his opinion. His boss thought otherwise.
Sharon wants to destroy the Likud. To rip it to shreds. Until not even a scrap remains. His resentment against the party that he established knows no bounds.
Mofaz’s desertion overturned another stone in the Likud. From now on, it is the party of the “rebels” (other than Silvan Shalom and Michael Eitan), and that is exactly what Sharon wants. To push the Likud into an extremist corner. To return it to the days of Menachem Begin’s Herut, which was a marginal party, a laughingstock. And Sharon is moving toward this goal like a bulldozer - without worrying about the environment.
In the region only Lebanese politics come close to this (or would if they got a chance at a little more stability and transparency). With all the talk in Egypt these days being switching to a proportional representation system (at least that’s what many of the pundits are advocating, no doubt partly to either isolate the Muslim Brothers or force them to integrate a party or form their own), one wonders whether we’ll be seeing this kind of stuff in a decade’s time.
I have to wonder, though, why did Mofaz come in through the window?
Categories: Israel/Palestine.
Hell, I see the ad’s still up, it’s just off the homepage. I’ve written to the Ha’aretz editors and I’ll let you know what they say.
At any rate, there’s a very simple answer to why Mofaz came in through the window. He was under the impression that he’d be able to win the Likud leadership with a “grass-roots organization” composed of reserve officers who owed him patronage, and then reunite Likud with Kadima after the election in return for a fat portfolio and policy concessions. The latest poll numbers, however, made clear that his campaign for the party leadership was tanking, and that instead of being leader, he’d find himself a marginal player in a party that was rapidly moving itself off the political map. Given that prospect, he decided to swallow his pride and join Kadima, where he will continue to be defense minister (albeit dancing to Sharon’s tune).
BTW, I disagree with Yossi Verter that Sharon is biting off more than he can chew. When the Likud split was first being discussed, Mofaz was considered a natural part of the Sharon camp. At the time, he was loyal to Sharon and was perceived as a centrist (albeit about as far right as one can get and still be part of the center), and was therefore considered part of the “pragmatic” faction likely to coalesce around Sharon rather than the “ideological” Bibi/Landau faction. By taking in Mofaz, Sharon is giving his party its natural boundary rather than overextending himself.
So we’ll now get to see how Sharon behaves when he isn’t encumbered by the Likud rebels and his coalition partners are pulling him left. My guess is a West Bank withdrawal, although I’ve been overly optimistic in the past.
Thanks Jonathan, fascinating stuff. The role the military plays in Israeli politics is very interesting. Despite my personal distaste for Ariel Sharon, I have to say I’m grudgingly impressed by his political maneuvers. I interpreted Verter’s take on Sharon as saying that while Sharon might achieve what he wants, the costs for the country’s political culture will be dear. He has certainly encouraged a personalization of politics in his style of governing (notably the use of his son Omri and other personal touches); if Sharon died tomorrow, would Kadima survive? Is there a pragmatic camp or a Sharon camp? From an Arab perspective this is important because in the past Israeli leaders have backed out of the deals and obligations that their predecessors engaged in, most notably when Bibi became prime minister. While there’s always deviations on both sides, the wide divergences in opinions over the peace process among the Israeli political class certainly makes it confusing for outsiders.
The role the military plays in Israeli politics is very interesting.
Israel has never had outright military praetorianism like Turkey, but as a national-security state in fairly continuous state of emergency, there has been a great deal of interplay (through both the front and back doors) between the military and political echelons. Other garrison states, such as Armenia and to some extent Lebanon, have shown similar patterns.
There’s some indication that things may be starting to change. Mofaz’ network of officers didn’t win him the Likud leadership, and a (right-wing) Israeli friend of mine recently told me that he was voting for Peretz because he was “tired of the generals.” As long as the conflict continues, though, I doubt the link can be broken entirely.
I’ve realized for some time that Palestine’s independence day will also be Israel’s - Israel can never be a truly independent and democratic state until it frees itself from the occupation and the conflict.
I interpreted Verter’s take on Sharon as saying that while Sharon might achieve what he wants, the costs for the country’s political culture will be dear.
Maybe, maybe not. Sharon certainly isn’t the first Israeli political leader to have a personal following - what leader was more personal than Ben-Gurion? And I’m also not one of those who thinks that Kadima is merely the “Sharon Party.” It’s Sharon’s creation now, but by the time the next election comes around, it will have had a few years to develop a track record in power and to sort out the succession. I’m guessing that Tzipi Livni will become Sharon’s heir apparent (Olmert is too old, and most of the other potential candidates lack stature), although events could intervene.
BTW, the next cabinet will include at least two non-Jewish ministers: Majali Whbee (a Sharon loyalist from the Druze sector who’s been working his way up) and an Arab to be named later.
Despite my personal distaste for Ariel Sharon, I have to say I’m grudgingly impressed by his political maneuvers.
I’ve been scratching my head about Sharon a great deal these last couple of years. Once, his name was a curse on my lips, but he’s the one who tamed the settlers and took a step that even Rabin never attempted. I still think he’s not the one to finish the job of making peace, but I’ve definitely had to reconsider my overall opinion of him. We’ll see what he does after the election - he’s very conscious of his place in history at this point, but that could take him any number of ways.
More later. I’ve got to put a post up; unfortunately, it involves an Israeli bureaucratic ruling that seriously pisses me off.