It's hard to keep following the consequences and outcomes of the protests and sit-ins that began last Friday. Here's a quick cheat sheet.
- The military is beginning to confirm that parliamentary elections will be around November, resolving the confusion over the fact that there is little time to prepare for their original stated schedule of September. The electoral registration and campaign period will begin in September, but the actual voting will be a month and a half or so later. I got it from the horse's mouth.
- The draft electoral law has been finalized by the government and presented to the SCAF, which has yet to decree it into law. It provides for a half list-based, half single district-based, electoral system. It will require redistricting (by whom?) It includes some provision for parties to place women towards the top of their lists, but does away with the women's quota.
- PM Essam Sharaf is said to be negotiating the terms of a cabinet shuffle with the SCAF. Deputy PM Yehia al-Gammal has already resigned (a few weeks ago he had requested it but been denied by the SCAF, although he has also made himself unpopular). Other portfolios that could see changes include: interior, justice, religious endowments, manpower, civil aviation, transport, electricity and military production. The inclusion of that last one (and civil aviation) is significant, since its protected territory of the military. A shuffle/replacement of governors could also take place at the end of the month.
- Nearly 600 police generals have been retired, and a total of 4,000 ministry of interior officials moved about. The latter may have been part of a routine naming of new positions, but the former is still significant, even if it falls short of a coherent long-term plan for security sector reform.
- The SCAF and government have promised to appoint dedicated judges for the prosecution of former regime officials and make their court sessions available on live television. Details are still scarce on this one, but if true a long overdue decision, but still short of a proper, exceptional, transitional justice system.
All of this only addresses some of the protestors concerns, but it certainly shows that protests are still paying off! As a reminder their demands are as follows, as reported by the DNE:
- The immediate release of all civilians who have been sentenced by military court and their retrial before civilian courts. Military trials for civilians are to be totally banned.
- A special court should be established to try those implicated in the killing of protesters and all implicated police officers are to be suspended immediately.
- The sacking of the current minister of the interior and his replacement by a political civilian appointee, to be followed by declaration of a plan and time table for the full restructuring of the Ministry of the Interior, placing it under judicial oversight.
- The sacking of the current Prosecutor General and the appointment of a well respected figure in his place.
- Putting Mubarak and the members of his clique on trial for the political crimes they committed against Egypt and its people.
- Revoking the current budget and the drawing up of a new draft budget that courageously acts to respond to the basic demands of the nation’s poor, and putting that draft budget to public debate before its adoption.
- Clear and open delineation of the prerogatives of the Supreme Military Council in ways that do not infringe on the powers and prerogatives of the cabinet of ministers. The Prime Ministers should have full powers to appoint his aides and the members of his cabinet, once that cabinet is purged of the remnants of the old regime.
Signatories to the joint statement include todate the Revolution Youth Coalition, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, the Democratic Front Party, Youth for Justice and Freedom, the Popular Socialist Alliance Party and the Awareness Party. Contacts are ongoing to widen the circle of signatories.
The future of the protests now hangs on several things. One is whether they are satisfied with concessions so far — this does not seem to be the case. I'm not sure how much traction they have on some of them: revisiting the budget seems unlikely at this point, for instance, and the SCAF/government can credibly make the case that a democratically elected government will be better place to make decisions that might mean extra debt, etc. Other demands seem to be worth fighting for, notably the end of military tribunals and limits on the powers of the SCAF (which might be meaningless considering their ability to act regardless of whatever limits there are.) One should also note that some protestors would also add to the above list the cancellation of the law passed in March criminalizing strikes.
The other question is the one of whether popular support for the strikes continues. The protestors raised eyebrows when the threatened to block the Suez Canal (a nuclear option) and blocked highways between Suez and the port of Ayn Sukhna, and shut down the Suez port of Adabiya / Port Tawfik. In Cairo the blockade of the Mugamma was criticized, and of course many are muttering about the traffic jams caused by the occupation of Tahrir. But my impression is that the media is generally cautiously supportive of the protestors' aims, even among conservative mainstream voices. The Muslim Brothers, who are not participating in the sit-in in any official capacity, are staying largely quiet or are making calls for Egyptians to rally behind the SCAF. I'm not sure how well that message will go across after General al-Fangari's lecture a few days ago, disliked by many who resented his hectoring and paternal tone (reminiscent, of course, of none other than Hosni Mubarak himself). The MB line primarily seems to be to urge people to wait for the elections and an elected government, which will "carry out the aims of the revolution." I can't quite gauge how much support this (not altogether unreasonable) position has, but also can't help feeling that ever since the beginning of the revolution in January the MB leadership has been behind the curve of what change is possible. On the other hand, while others are pouring their energies into fighting the SCAF, they are no doubt building a formidable electoral machine.
The more important question might be how much general public support is behind Tahrir (and the other, much smaller, protests across the country). The turnout tomorrow might be one indication of that.
- The Associated Press: Street by street, Egypt activists face Old Guard
- Egyptian Prime Minister Sharaf's conciliatory address triggers protesters' anger, swells protest ranks - Politics - Egypt - Ahram Online
- Egypt's ruling military council speaks out - at last - Politics - Egypt - Ahram Online
- Egypt's military warns protesters against violence - CTV News
- Youm7 English Edition | Egypt protesters tie naked thugs to trees
- Egypt - A Troubling Mix | Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Egypt's 'second revolution' welcomes gains, abhors threats, and presses for more - Politics - Egypt - Ahram Online
- Moussa proposes roadmap for Egypt's transitional phase - Politics - Egypt - Ahram Online
- The Associated Press: Egypt fires 587 officers to cleanse police force
- Egypt's Incomplete Revolution: The Challenge of Post-Mubarak Authoritarianism