The Arabist

The Arabist

By Issandr El Amrani and friends.

Questions about the crisis over Morsi's decree

I am busy with a project that is taking all my time, but these are the questions I am asking myself regarding the crisis over Morsi's 22 November decree:

1. Does Morsi feel he could back back down on some of the provisions of the decree without damaging his credibility as leader?

2. Is the opposition willing to make demands that are not absolute, like canceling the whole decree or having Morsi step down (which no political leader demands but the crowds in Tahrir chant.)

3. Will the judges' strike, which began in Alexandria and Beheira governorate, spread to a national judicial strike?

4. What are the prospects towards a more general strike?

5. What is the military thinking? Does it believe it could ultimately intervene, claiming to defend the constitutional order or the revolution, and if so how?

6. Will the US and EU move to freeze their recently announced aid packages, citing lack of good governance? What does this mean for the IMF deal?

7. What are the prospects for escalation on either side? We've seen FJP offices being attacked and Muslim Brothers ordered to surround, somewhat threateningly, the Cairo High Court, as well as tasked with defending their branches (a task which should fall to the police) — how quickly could this turn into direct confrontations on a larger scale?

8. Are the dynamics here winner take all — i.e. either Morsi backs down or his decree remains intact?

Feel free to add your own questions in the comments...