Will the US approve aid to Egypt?

Probably — but it will be more embarassing this time round.

I know everyone is tired of this story, but POMED has an updated backgrounder [PDF] on the whole US–Egypt NGO affair. It's particularly important now because the Obama administration is on the verge of approving military aid to Egypt for the current financial year, and the DC desire to just move along is now being challenged by calls to restrict aid by the likes of Amnesty International.

In other words, this story is not going away in Egypt — where the trial off NGO workers continues  and the departure of the Americans has enraged the political class — or in the US where it involves powerful lobbies and interests clashing yet again with the concern over Egypt's direction in Congress and civil society. Note for instance how the report cites statements by the Obama administration that should prevent it from approving the aid: 

These statements illustrate that Egypt continues to violate “freedom of expression, association, and religion, and due process of law,” and thus preclude Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from certifying the allocation of military aid to Egypt. Nonetheless, the Obama administration could waive the requirement on national security grounds as stipulated in the omnibus bill. 
The bulk of the $1.3 billion of Egypt’s military assistance is paid directly to American weapons manufacturers by the U.S. Department of Defense. These companies have been contracted to manufacture and ship tanks, planes, guns and ammunition to Egypt. 
Here you will find a list of these defense contractors and the value of their contracts. Payments to these contractors are due in the coming weeks, forcing the U.S. to decide whether to deliver military aid now in order to avoid incurring late payment penalty fees.

These statements illustrate that Egypt continues to violate “freedom of expression, association, and religion, and due process of law,” and thus preclude Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from certifying the allocation of military aid to Egypt. Nonetheless, the Obama administration could waive the requirement on national security grounds as stipulated in the omnibus bill. 
The bulk of the $1.3 billion of Egypt’s military assistance is paid directly to American weapons manufacturers by the U.S. Department of Defense. These companies have been contracted to manufacture and ship tanks, planes, guns and ammunition to Egypt. 
Here you will find a list of these defense contractors and the value of their contracts. Payments to these contractors are due in the coming weeks, forcing the U.S. to decide whether to deliver military aid now in order to avoid incurring late payment penalty fees. 

Update — Here's some press reports on the matter: