The Arabist

The Arabist

By Issandr El Amrani and friends.

Election Polls

Here's a roundup of a few internet polls on the Egyptian presidential elections:

Shebab Misr (2264 responses):

Ayman Nour -63%;
Hosni Mubarak - 21%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 12%

Egyptian Referendum (1591 responses):

Hosni Mubarak - 39.66%;
Ayman Nour - 28.16%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 15.78%;
Boycotting - 10.56%

From Al Waai Al Misri (2706 responses):

Ayman Nour - 31%;
Hosni Mubarak - 11%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 11%;
Boycotting - 37%

The Coptic run Watani Newspaper (233 responses):

Hosni Mubarak - 45%;
Ayman Nour - 34%;
Nomaan Goma - 17%

Al Jazeera Poll (32,197 responses):
Do you think the candidates in the Egyptian presidential elections have an equal chance in the election campaigns?

Yes - 6.9%;
No - 93.1%

I'm not exaclty sure what conclusions you can draw from these most unscientific samples. They seem to confirm that the race is indeed between Ayman Nour and Hosni Mubarak, and that the Wafd's Nomaan Gomaa is a distant third. That being said, most people expect Nomaan Gomaa to place second in the elections after all is said and done, simply because the government won't want Ayman Nour to be the alternative to Mubarak.

The polls above in which Nour is beating Mubarak, Al Waai Al Masry and Shebab Misr, are opposition Web sites, and one would expect that most of the people who read them would be inclined to oppose Mubarak. I don't know much about the Egyptian Referendum Web site, but at first glance it appears to be fairly non-partisan. Though the Watani poll includes a small sample, the strong showing for Mubarak in it is perhaps a reflection of the Pope's pro-Mubarak stance.