Courtesy Industry Arabic, the latest in our In Translation series, in which Fahmy Howeidy -- a writer with moderate Islamist leanings and a big following -- critiques
Egypt Heading into the Unknown
and Outside of History
Shorouq Newspaper, 22 October, 2013
Egypt’s current problem
is that it is moving along a path leading outside of history, and one fears that Egypt will drag the Arab world along with it in the end.
(1)
Reading Egyptian newspapers these
days and following the statements of politicians -- who have begun to compete with
each other to court the military and outdo one another in praising
its role -- it might not occur to you that the newspaper headlines, the
comments of the editors, and the statements of the politicians could almost be
an exact copy of the discourse in Turkey around half a century ago. However,
anyone who has read the history of the militarization of Turkish society notes
that the voices calling for the armed forces to intervene to save the country
from chaos and collapse reverberated loudly during every political crisis.
Given the fragility and weakness of the political situation, everyone
considered the military the savior and rescuer. The military had credit
with the public that permitted it to play this role, since it saved the country
from occupation after the First World War, established the republic and led the
process of modernizing the state. This is the background that was repeatedly
invoked in order to militarize society from the establishment of the republic
in the 1920’s and for 80 years afterwards.
The episodes of this repeated and rehearsed
scenario would play out as follows: Weak parties fail in running the state; voices are raised calling for the military to carry out its role as rescuer; the military gives a warning to the government, telling it to carry out its
responsibilities; after the warning, the military announces the coup and takes
over the administration of the country and the management of the out-of-control
conditions. Barely a few years go by (most usually ten) before the crisis
recurs and the same voices and calls reverberate again. Then the military would
give its warning, followed by intervention to take over power as the only
disciplined and cohesive institution, and the one with the force of weapons on
the ground. This is a scenario that recurred with the coups in 1960, 1971 and
1980, until the coup of 1997 that was described as a “soft” or “post-modern” coup.
The jumping-off point for these coups was the fact that the military considered
itself responsible for protecting the principles of the Turkish republic, along
with its job of protecting the nation. To fulfill this responsibility, it
imposed itself as the guardian of society. The constitution of 1982 codified
this guardianship, which was exercised by the National Security Council and
which formed advisory offices for the country’s military, political, economic,
cultural, and media affairs, etc. The military institution went on alert after
the elections of 1995 that were a relative win for the Islamist-oriented Welfare
Party. This win led to the formation of a coalition government with the True
Path Party. The head of the government at that time was Necmettin Erbakan, the
leader of the Welfare Party. The military leadership responded to this by pulling
the strings that it had spread out through key posts in the state and the
decision-making authority, until it forced Erbakan to resign from office in
1997.
(2)
The prevailing winds Egypt since the
removal of Dr. Mohamed Morsi are going in this same direction against history,
after the military council’s mission came to an end in 2012. The renewal of the
hopes pinned on the possibility of democratic change and creating institutions
that manage society -- all of that was dashed on the 3rd of July after
the removal of the elected president, the freezing of the constitution, and the
dissolution of the Shura Council and other councils that had been formed. It
became clear that the orientation was towards betting on the military
institution and boosting the state's power over society. In this climate, the
preparations for issuing a new constitution were carried out by a group that
was chosen, not elected, and the military institution became the de facto
source of authority and the decision maker in shaping the new situation. In
this, the military institution did not force itself upon society. Rather, its
steps were supported and welcomed by the elite and the civil forces with their
different orientations – liberal, nationalist, and leftist. The media was the strike
force that succeeded in “manufacturing consent,” in Chomsky's phrase, using the failures of Mohamed Morsi’s rule to mobilize the public and incite them
against his regime, and thus standing with the camp betting on the military
institution.
Given the new situation, General Abdel
Fattah el-Sisi, Defense Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces,
became the presidential candidate around which the civil forces coalesced. The
presence of the armed forces in the committee tasked with drafting the
constitution took on special significance when a clamor was raised over the
defense minister’s immunity and the condition that the Supreme Council of the
Armed Forces approve the minister’s appointment. This action takes this authority
away from the president or the prime minister. As a compromise, some proposed applying
this just during a transition period of ten to twelve years. Also, the concept
of trying civilians in military courts was retained, even though these courts
are not even independent, but rather are subject to the minister of defense’s
orders.
In this atmosphere, we read in the Al-Shorouk
newspaper (edition of 10/5) important statements from a military source that
the newspaper’s editor said is close to the military institution. In his
statements, he focused on the following:
- That the experience of the last few years proves that the army is the only real power in Egypt for the foreseeable future, because of the weakness of secular political parties. Thus the army must have the means to guard the country against any organization or group that wishes to change the country's identity.
- That under the current circumstances, the army can't hand the presidency to anyone it doesn't know. For the people can't lose the only weapon they possess, their national army. We don't want to far the possibility that someone disguised as a secularists gains the presidency, and appoint whoever he wishes as minister of defense, and thus can change the identity of the army.
The newspaper Al-Shorouk did not
say that the military source was speaking in the same of the armed forces, but
he at least expresses a school or a
trend within the armed forces that considers the military the only force and
the highest authority in the Egyptian political arena. Also, he holds a
position opposing the Brotherhood experience and is concerned only with
avoiding a repeat of this experience, claiming that it could affect the
identity of the armed forces. As for the nation’s identity and its greater good,
this is a concern of secondary importance.
(3)
With the continuing expansion of the
military institution in the current political vacuum and the military’s undeniably
increasing role, Egypt has begun to move outside the course of history. At the
very least, this means that the dream of the democratic civil state that the
January 25th revolution aspired to is in a state of decline and
retreat. The tangible advancements barely hint at the possibility of achieving
a fraction of this dream in the near future.
The structure that is currently being
set up in Egypt suffers from a fatal flaw in its balance of power and its vision.
That is because it is taking place in the shadow of the strength and dominance
of the military institution, and in the shadow of institutions chosen from sectors
united only by their rejection of and enmity towards the Brotherhood. They
represent fragile political groups without a popular base, to the point that these
groups have begun to derive their legitimacy by relying on the military
institution and riding on its coattails. This represents the heart of the
current political crisis in Egypt. This large country cannot be built on a
foundation made of an alliance between liberals and the military, and its
program cannot be based simply on the idea of excluding the Brotherhood and
continuing the war against terrorism. This is the observation made by numerous Western
analyses that keep talking about how Egypt is headed towards the unknown now
that its political influence has declined and it no longer has a notable role
in regional affairs.
Not only that, but Egypt in its
weakness finds itself surrendering to schemes for security and non-security
cooperation with Israel, especially since the military institution is
considered the most prominent pillar of the Camp David Accords. Perhaps the
international predicament facing Egypt pushed it to become closer to Israel and
to interact with it more. The current regime is comfortable and reassuring to
Israel, contrary to President Mohamed Morsi’s regime, which Israel was
uncomfortable with and found worrisome.
This same weakness – which arises from
the confusion and perplexity that the strategic vision for the new situation
suffers from – has driven Egypt to throw itself into the arms of Arab
coalitions antagonistic to the Arab Spring in its entirety. These coalitions
have their own ties and loyalties that are incompatible with the revolution’s
goals and the desires of the Arab masses. When this happens while the Arab
region is facing giant upheavals that could redraw its maps and subject it to
plans for fragmentation and division, it reveals the high price that the Arab
world could pay because of the upheaval and setback that occurred in Egypt.
(4)
The picture is not entirely frustrating,
because the shocks and upheavals from which the regimes of the Arab Spring are suffering
are almost completely confined to the outward manifestations of
this Spring. However, the Arab Spring has another, hidden aspect that has not
yet lost its vitality. I was among those who said previously that the Arab
Spring, in its actuality, is a historical transformation in the constitution of
the Arab person, who has begun to call for change and announce his rejection of
the political and social oppression that regimes imposed on him. What I
expressed was recorded in a report by the New York Times published on
October 18th. This report talked about the manifestations of an unspoken mass
movement that all of the Gulf Arab countries are witnessing, with Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates at their forefront. This report was written by
Christopher Davidson, a political science professor at Durham, a British
university. He chose an evocative title for this report: "The Last of the
Sheikhs?"
Egypt, if it loses itself through its
current behavior will take the Arab world along with it as well. However, even
if Egypt stands outside the course of history it will not be able to stop the
wheel of history from turning. This is one of God’s rules for the universe, which
is expressed in the Quranic text that states, {And if you turn
away, He will replace you with another people; then they will not be the likes
of you.} (Surah Mohammad, Ayah 38).